Clinton is determined to "take the Democratic nomination even if she does not win the popular vote" with a plan to "persuade enough superdelegates to vote for her at the convention." Clinton "will not concede the race to Obama if he wins a greater number of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, and will count on the 796 elected officials and party bigwigs to put her over the top, if necessary, said Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson."
Delegates:
Louisiana
66 delegates
23 Obama
15 Hillary
18 still unassigned
Obama's projections was for a 31-25 take in Louisiana.
Nebraska
24 delegates
16 Obama
8 Hillary
2 still unassigned
Obama's projection was for a 15-9 take in Nebraska, so he got an extra delegate.
Washington
78 delegates
52 Obama
26 Hillary
I shifted from CNN projections to that of the Washington State Democratic Party chair's estimate. The number is tentative until confirmed. Obama's projection was for a 49-29 take in Washington, which would mean an extra three delegates from what he expected.
US Virgin Islands
3 delegates
3 Obama
0 Hillary
0 still unassigned
Obama's projection was for a 2-1 take in the USVI, so these results would mean an extra delegate from what they hoped to get.
"They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided; too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose.
But on this January night – at this defining moment in history – you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do; what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days; what America can do in this New Year. In schools and churches; small towns and big cities; you came together as Democrats, Republicans and Independents to stand up and say that we are one nation; we are one people; and our time for change has come.
You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that’s consumed Washington; to end the political strategy that’s been all about division and make it about addition – to build a coalition for change that stretches through Red States and Blue States. Because that’s how we’ll win in November, and that’s how we’ll finally meet the challenges we face.
The time has come to tell the lobbyists who think their money and their influence speak louder than our voices that they don’t own this government, we do; and we’re here to take it back.
The time has come for a President who’ll be honest about the choices and the challenges we face; who’ll listen to you even when we disagree; who won’t just tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to know. And New Hampshire, if you give me the same chance that Iowa did tonight, I will be that President for America."
The speech, as prepared for deliver, appears in full after the jump.
They said this day would never come.
They said our sights were set too high.
They said this country was too divided; too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose.
But on this January night – at this defining moment in history – you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do; what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days; what America can do in this New Year. In schools and churches; small towns and big cities; you came together as Democrats, Republicans and Independents to stand up and say that we are one nation; we are one people; and our time for change has come.
You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that’s consumed Washington; to end the political strategy that’s been all about division and make it about addition – to build a coalition for change that stretches through Red States and Blue States. Because that’s how we’ll win in November, and that’s how we’ll finally meet the challenges we face.
The time has come to tell the lobbyists who think their money and their influence speak louder than our voices that they don’t own this government, we do; and we’re here to take it back.
The time has come for a President who’ll be honest about the choices and the challenges we face; who’ll listen to you even when we disagree; who won’t just tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to know. And New Hampshire, if you give me the same chance that Iowa did tonight, I will be that President for America.
I’ll be a President who finally makes health care affordable and available to every single American the same way I expanded health care in Illinois – by bringing Democrats and Republicans together to get the job done
I’ll be a President who ends the tax breaks for corporations who ship our jobs overseas and puts a middle-class tax cut into the pockets of the working Americans who deserve it.
I’ll be a President who harnesses the ingenuity of farmers and scientists and entrepreneurs to free this nation from the tyranny of oil once and for all.
And I’ll be a President who brings our troops home from Iraq; restores our moral standing; and understands that 9/11 is not a way to scare up votes, but a challenge that should unite America and the world against the common threats of the twenty-first century: terrorism and nuclear weapons; climate change and poverty; genocide and disease.
Tonight, we are one step closer to that vision of America because of what you did here in Iowa. And I’d like to take a minute to thank the organizers and precinct captains; the volunteers and staff who made this all possible.
I know you didn’t do this just for me. You did this because you believed deeply in the most American of ideas – that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it.
I know this because while I may be standing here tonight, I’ll never forget that my journey began on the streets of Chicago doing what so many of you have done for this campaign and all the campaigns here in Iowa – organizing, and working, and fighting to make people’s lives just a little bit better.
I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay, and a lot of sacrifice. There are days of disappointment, but sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this – a night that, years from now, when we’ve made the changes we believe in; when more families can afford to see a doctor; when our children inherit a planet that’s a little cleaner and safer; when the world sees America differently, and America sees itself as a nation less divided and more united; you’ll be able look back with pride and say that this was the moment when it all began.
This was the moment when the improbable beat what Washington always said was inevitable.
This was the moment when we tore down barriers that have divided us for far too long – when we rallied people of all parties and ages to a common cause; when we finally gave Americans who’d never participated in politics a reason to stand up and do so.
This was the moment when we finally beat back the politics of fear, and doubt, and cynicism; the politics where we tear each other down instead of lifting this country up.
Years from now, you’ll look back and say that this was the moment – this was the place – where America remembered what it means to hope.
For many months, we’ve been teased and even derided for talking about hope.
But we always knew that hope is not blind optimism. It’s not ignoring the enormity of the task ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path. It’s not sitting on the sidelines or shrinking from a fight. Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it, and work for it, and fight for it.
Hope is what I saw in the eyes of the young woman in Cedar rapids who works the night shift after a full day of college and still can’t afford health care for a sister who’s ill; a young woman who still believes that this country will give her the chance to live out her dreams.
Hope is what I heard in the voice of the New Hampshire woman who told me that she hasn’t been able to breathe since her nephew left for Iraq; who still goes to bed each night praying for a safe return.
Hope is what led a band of colonists to rise up against an Empire; what led the greatest of generations to free a continent and heal a nation; what led young men and women to sit at lunch counters and brave fire hoses and march through Selma and Montgomery for freedom’s cause.
Hope is what led me here today – with a father from Kenya; a mother from Kansas; and a story that could only happen in the United States of America. It is the bedrock of this nation; the belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us; by all those men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is; who have the courage to remake the world as it should be.
That is what we started here in Iowa, and that is the message we now carry to New Hampshire and beyond; the same message we had when we were up and when we were down; the one that can change this country brick by brick, block by block, calloused hand by calloused hand – that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things; because we are not a collection of Red States and Blue States, we are the United States of America; and at this moment, in tthis election, we are ready to believe again.
New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton
By THOMAS BEAUMONT • REGISTER STAFF WRITER • Copyright 2007,
Des Moines Register and Tribune Company • December 31, 2007
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.
Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.
Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.
The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.
The poll also reveals a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead and the remaining candidates. No other Democrat received support from more than 6 percent of likely caucusgoers.
McCain losing votes to Obama in N.H.
By Maeve Reston and Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
December 30, 2007
NASHUA, N.H. -- Like many New Hampshire voters, Dave Montgomery considers himself a dyed-in-the-wool independent -- which in this state means he can vote in either the Republican or Democratic presidential primary when he goes to the polls Jan. 8.
This year, the semi-retired school bus driver from Milford finds himself torn between two candidates, one from each party: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Barack Obama of (D-Ill.).
Montgomery likes McCain, he said, because "he seems to be enough of a rebel." He likes Obama for pretty much the same reason -- because he seems to be "his own man."
"I think either one of them could do the job," he said.
Independents like Montgomery may be the decisive factor for both major parties when New Hampshire holds the nation's first primary next week, hot on the heel's of Iowa's caucuses on Thursday. And the choices these nonaligned New Hampshire voters make almost assuredly will shape the nation's later primary races.
"This big group in the middle . . . has a chance to really transform the election," said Tom Rath, a veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist who is advising former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.). Describing the efforts to woo independents, he added: "It's more like a general election here."
If Obama bests national front runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he probably will owe his New Hampshire victory to independents, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll suggested last week.
Among the state's registered Democrats, the survey found Clinton led Obama, 35% to 28%. But among independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama led, 37% to 24% -- turning the contest into a virtual tie.
The real gamble in this election is playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and expecting a different result. And that’s a risk we can’t take. Not this year. Not when the stakes are this high.
In this election, it is time to turn the page. In seven days, it is time to stand for change.
This has been our message since the beginning of this campaign. It was our message when we were down, and our message when we were up. And it must be catching on, because in these last few weeks, everyone is talking about change.
But you can’t at once argue that you’re the master of a broken system in Washington and offer yourself as the person to change it. You can’t fall in line behind the conventional thinking on issues as profound as war and offer yourself as the leader who is best prepared to chart a new and better course for America.
The truth is, you can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience. Mine is rooted in the real lives of real people and it will bring real results if we have the courage to change. I believe deeply in those words. But they are not mine. They were Bill Clinton’s in 1992, when Washington insiders questioned his readiness to lead.
My experience is rooted in the lives of the men and women on the South Side of Chicago who I fought for as an organizer when the local steel plant closed. It’s rooted in the lives of the people I stood up for as a civil rights lawyer when they were denied opportunity on the job or justice at the voting booth because of what they looked like or where they came from. It’s rooted in an understanding of how the world sees America that I gained from living, traveling, and having family beyond our shores – an understanding that led me to oppose this war in Iraq from the start. It’s experience rooted in the real lives of real people, and it’s the kind of experience Washington needs right now.
Sunday, December 16, 2007 6:05 AM CST
Candidates court black vote
By JENS MANUEL KROGSTAD, Courier Staff Writer
WATERLOO --- A diverse field of presidential candidates, combined with aggressive, tailored outreach, has generated exceptionally high interest in the caucuses in the black community.
African-Americans in Waterloo so far seem to mirror Democrats in the rest of the state --- they're mulling the three leading presidential candidates, but leaning toward Barack Obama.
While people are quick to praise Hillary Clinton, the buzz in churches, barber shops and beauty salons seem to favor Obama less than three weeks before the caucuses.
A new poll released by Lee Enterprises, the Courier's parent company, echoed that assessment: Obama leads the pack with 33 percent, followed by Clinton and John Edwards, each at 24 percent.
"The people I talk to here, and especially with African-Americans, it's Obama, Obama, Obama," acknowledged Joy Lowe, a longtime friend and supporter of John and Elizabeth Edwards. "I've never seen anything like this, not even with (former presidential contender) Jesse Jackson."
Take a drive down East Fourth Street and through sizable African-American neighborhoods, and it's hard not to notice a similar trend in the yard signs lining the streets --- Obama, Obama, Obama. Not be ignored, though, are the splashes of Edwards and Clinton signs. Add it all up, and it could be a record year for voter turnout, said Michael Blackwell, Black Hawk County Democrats vice chairman.
"I attribute that to the number of candidates running, and also the fact there have been a lot of candidates --- some more than others --- that have sought to reach out directly to the African-American community," Blackwell said.
Campaigns have implemented unprecedented outreach efforts towards blacks in a city where the number of African-Americans roughly equals the national average --- 12 percent. It is a sizeable population, especially in a state with an approximately 2 percent black population.
Winfrey tells Iowa crowd: We need Barack Obama
From Sasha Johnson and Candy Crowley
CNN Washington Bureau
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Saying she felt compelled to support "the man I believe has a new vision for America," Oprah Winfrey spoke passionately about Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama at a rally in Iowa Saturday.
"These are dangerous times, you can feel it. We need a leader who shows us how to hope again in America as a force for peace," Winfrey told the enthusiastic crowd.
"I believe Barack Obama will bring statesmanship to the White House," she said. "He's a man who knows who we are and knows who we can be."
Winfrey said she has voted for as many Republicans as she has Democrats over the years, so her endorsement wasn't about partisanship.
"This is very, very personal. I'm here because of my personal conviction about Barack Obama and what I know he can do for America," she said to applause. Watch Winfrey endorse Obama »
Winfrey also told the crowd that she's looking for more than a candidate with "experience in the hallways of government."
"I challenge you to see through those people who try to convince you that experience with politics as usual is more valuable than wisdom won from years of serving people outside the walls of Washington, D.C.," she said.
Obama thanked Winfrey for drawing a big crowd and coming out to the event.
"There are some people here who are here to see Oprah. I'm sort of a by-product of that and I appreciate that, but what I know is that for her to take the risk of stepping out of her comfort zone is extraordinary," the senator from Illinois said.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 finds Hillary Clinton at 27%, Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%. Bill Richardson is the only other Democrat in double-digits at 10% while Joe Biden earns 4% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants.
These results reflect little change from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted earlier in the month. In the previous survey Clinton had 29% support with Edwards at 25% and Obama at 24%. While the race in Iowa remains very close, Clinton retains a solid lead in the national polls and double digit leads in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Many believe that those figures may change based upon what ultimately happens on January 3 in Iowa.
Currently, in Iowa, Clinton attracts 30% of the vote from women while Obama earns 26% and Edwards 22%. Among men, it’s Edwards 26%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 23% (see crosstabs).
In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates.
There are many challenges to polling a caucus, primarily around the question of who will actually participate. Those challenges are magnified this year by the timing of the caucus on January 3 forcing candidates and their teams to explore tactful methods of contacting voters during the holiday season.
When only voters who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus are included in the totals, Obama is supported by 26%, Edwards by 25% and Clinton by 23%.
However, when only those who are certain which candidate they will support are included, it’s Clinton 27%, Obama 25% and Edwards 22%.
Among those who have participated in a caucus before, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 24% and Obama 22%.
Collectively, these results show that the caucuses remain a three-way race and no candidate has a measurable advantage at this time.
Just 8% of Likely Caucus Participants say that there is a good chance they will change their mind between now and January 3. That figure includes 10% of Edwards’ supporters, 7% of those for Obama, and 5% for Clinton.
Overall, 68% of both Clinton supporters and Obama supporters say they are certain they will vote for their candidate. Earlier in the month, 57% of Clinton supporters were certain of their support along with just 45% of Obama supporters. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Edwards supporters currently say they are certain to vote for him. That’s up from 52% earlier in the month.
Thirty-six percent (36%) of Likely Caucus Participants think that Clinton is likely to win the caucuses. An identical number think that Obama is likely to win. Nineteen percent (19%) say Edwards is the likely winner, 3% name somebody else, and 5% are not sure.
Obama Holds His Largest Lead Ever in Iowa Poll
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Dec 06, 2007 at 12:03:11 PM EST
Republican pollster Strategic Vision is out with new numbers from Iowa that seem to gibe with the general trends from both the Democratic and Republican primaries, with both Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee leading their respective party's field in the first early nominating state. Take a look at the latest survey of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers (11/30-12/2, MoE +/- 4.5%), along with the Pollster.com average out of the state (which includes this SV poll).
Candidate 12/2 (11/25) Pollster
Obama 32 (29) 26.4
Clinton 25 (29) 27.9
Edwards 25 (23) 21.8
Biden 5 (4) 4.6
Richardson 3 (6) 8.3
Dodd 1 (1) 1.0
Kucinich 1 (1) 1.2
Undecided 8 (7) N/A
These moves from two weeks ago are all within the margin of error for the poll, as is Obama's lead, so as is almost always the case with these things, one need remember not to place excessive attention on the results of a single poll. That said, looking at the trend of all polling out of Iowa, one cannot help but come away with the sentiment that Obama is on a steady rise in the state while Clinton is nearing or has already hit her peak in the state.
The other key take away from these numbers is that Bill Richardson seems to be hemorrhaging support in Iowa while Biden may be picking up a bit of support here and there. If you had asked me even a month ago what one of the most important yet insufficiently discussed aspects of the campaign in Iowa was I would have said (a) whether Richardson's 10-12 support statewide would be spread in such a way that he would be viable in a good number of caucus locations; and (b) where his support would go in those locations where he did not meet the 15 percent threshold for viability. Yet if Richardson is really down in towards 3 percent support -- four of the past five polls from the state show he's pulling in single-digit support in the state after having consistently polled in the low double-digits or high single-digits since May -- where his support goes becomes a lot less important of a question.
